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Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Impulse Trades of the Week

These are the Last Trades of the Impulse Setup, as we explained the last week

British Pound Futures ( 6B ) and Forex ( GBPUSD)

The chart has overlapped the entry markers of the Indicator TIS_Impulse_Indicator and the entries executed by the PM_Impulse Strategy.

As we see there is only 1 entry missed due the time filter used on the strategy.

Euro Futures ( 6E ) and Forex ( EURUSD)

This chart shows the same setup executed on Euro Futures ( or EUR-USD Currency Pair on Forex ).
We are missing one trade again, because the start time adjustment of the strategy.

As we already explained, the Impulse Setup Logic is SIMPLE;

When a Fast Band is above a Small Band, We are in Long mode.
When a Fast Band is below Small Band, We are in Short mode.

..on old versions ( PM_Impulse_v2), Fast Band was just a moving average. This behavior can be emulated on this last version using a null width.

Once We are in Long/Short Mode, the system Entry on all prior versions was related to the Slow Band.
On this new release, we can take more aggressive entries by referring the Entry to a different Band. I suggest using the Fast, but any Period can be selected.
On the following example, we are using the same Impulse Setup on Euro but changing the Entry to the Fast Band :

We are proud to announce that the new version of the Impulse Strategy ; PM_Impulse_V6 is ready and will be delivered to all current owners of PM_Impulse.
It can trade all setups covered by prior versions and all combinations available on the TIS_Impulse Indicator, so the combinations of different setups is huge.
Impulse V6 has the Donchian Channel Filter introduced on V5, Trend Filter, AutoBreakeven , and Trailing Stop using the TIS_Multitrail Indicator.

Input Parameters of PM_Impulse_V6

Please post any questions or suggestions or send me an email.
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Monday, January 28, 2013

TIS_MultiTrail Indicator for Ninjatrader

TIS_MultiTrail Indicator for NinjaTrader
... a Tool to Manage Trailing Stops

Once we have cashed out the First Target of our trade, one of the most difficult tasks to achieve is optimizing the performance of our runners.
I call runners to those positions without a defined target, where we keep moving the stop trying to stay in the market the most part of the trend.
Placing our stop a few ticks from the previous bar extreme is one of the most usual methods, but not the best ; we usually get stopped out at a small retracement, and then the market keeps going on the same direction...without us !
The Multitrail indicator uses a combination of ATR ( Average True Range ) and HMA ( Hull Moving Average ) to get the fastest move according to the current volatility :

Click on the Chart to Zoom

If you look at the chart with detail, you will see that there are several instances where price touches the line, without changing the trend ; this is because the indicator requires a breach to consider a reversal.
We can change the settings making  the trailing more aggressive, so if we have multiple runners, we can have different settings for each one, as on the following example :

Click on Chart to Zoom

This trailing stop method is used on the PM_Impulse Strategy
You can find this Indicator for NinjaTrader on the Following Link

If you have any question please post your comments here or send me an email.

Good Trading !

logo Pablo Maglio The Indicator Store 
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Saturday, January 19, 2013

PM_EMA Strategy for NinjaTrader - Setup Review

Hello everyone !
It has been a long time since the last post we made about this setup, so we are going to explain it to the maximum detail and show how to trade it with its TIS_EMA_Indicator and the Strategy PM_EMA_Trader.

This is a Trend Following Setup, so it works better with trending Markets.
It can be optimized for Impulsive Markets, but it will not perform in its best way. There are other Setups focused to Impulsive Markets ( See Impulse Setup ).

In terms of simplicity and easy to use this is one of the most easy and simple setups to follow and we only need to focus on 2 ( two ) Indicators :

  • An Exponential Moving Average ( EMA )
  • An Envelope ( Fixed number of ticks above and below the EMA )

The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) defines the trend and also is the entry ;
...when price is above the EMA, we want to go Long at its price
...when price is below the EMA, we want to go Short at its price

The logic is that the price will bounce near the moving average, several times, until the trend is over.... ( more about this later...)

Now we need to define when we are trade ready, and this is where we use the envelope.
While price is inside the envelope, we can consider the market is in sideways mode. So, no signals, no trades...

When price touches the upper band of the envelope, the setup changes to BUY Mode.
When price touches the lower band of the envelope, the setup changes to SELL Mode.

Some examples on the following charts :

This example starts with bars inside the envelope, so the setup is in neutral mode.
When bar touches upper band, the Buy Mode Start and we start looking for an entry at the moving average

Similar example for Short Signal :

On this example price start from inside the envelope ( bars are gray ) until the low of one bar touches the lower envelope and the Setup switches to Sell Mode.
At this point we start looking to short the moving average.
We get several entries ; each time price touches the lower band the bars turn red and the setup sets to Sell mode again.

What happens when the trend is over ...?

Lets look at the following example ;

We can see on the last Short of this chart, that price continued going against the trade touching the upside band triggering the Buy Mode.
If our stop is big enough to survive this move, when the price comes back to allow the long entry we can unload the short entry at a minimal loss.
This behavior is very frequent on  trending markets.

There are several ways to trade this setup, we can use a small stop, slightly lower than the envelope size, so we have a standard size loser at the end of the trend. The advantage is that those losers will be always equal and small.
Or we can use a big stop, usually twice the size of the envelope, resulting in a final average loser small but with some big losers.

Detail of the reversal procedure :

On these example charts we are using the Indicator for Ninjatrader TIS_EMA_Trader_Indicator with which we can indicate the period of the moving average and the size of the envelope and it will paint bars according to the trade setup.

With this trade setup automated, like the PM_EMA_Trader Strategy, we can 

  • Perform a Scan of all moving averages to find the bests to use and worsts to avoid

  • Optimize Targets, Stops and Envelope Sizes
  • Research Best Times and Days of Week to trade
  • AutoTrade the Setup !
If you have any question about this setup just let me know or post your opinions here !


logo    Pablo Maglio The Indicator Store 
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Friday, January 18, 2013

Week Trades using Indicators for Ninjatrader from The Indicator Store

Hello ! We will describe the trades we could execute this past week using the Indicators for Ninjatrader designed by The Indicator Store ; TIS_Small_Range and TIS_Impulse_Trader.

Impulse Strategy

On the following charts, we can see the entries of the Impulse Setup on the British Pound  ( Forex : GBPUSD ) and a comparison of its entries to the futures version ( 6B )
Impulse Setup on GBPUSD R6
As we can see on the next chart, this system is valid on Forex and futures, showing the same entries on both
The only difference is the tick value ( $6.25 ) vs GBPUSD pip value.
Impulse Setup on 6B R6
The British Pound (6B)(GBPUSD) has been moving very well this week, making this strategy very profitable.
The Timeframe used is Range 6 and the parameters are :
Slow Moving Average Period =
Channel Size = 8 ticks/pips
Fast Moving Average = 8
Entry = -3 ticks/pips from Slow moving Average
On the following Chart, we see the same Strategy applied to the euro-dolar pair (EURUSD).
As we already explained, this is also valid for Euro Future ( 6E ).
Impulse Setup on EURUSD R6
 On this example, we had 3 sell signals today ; 1st got the initial target, 2nd was a loser and last short got 1st and 2nd target ( or exited at trailing stop )
For the Euro Setup We replace the fixed envelope by a Bollinger ;
Bollinger Period = 50 , Standard Dev = 0.5
Fast Moving Average = 8
Channel Size = 5 ticks ( around Fast Moving average)
Entry = Slow Bollinger Band with Standard Deviation = 0.8

Small Range Setup

This chart shows the Small Range Setup applied to Gold using a 9 Range Timeframe.
Small Range Setup on GC 9R
Today , Gold was mostly on sideways mode, without allowing to get bigger targets than usual.
We had a long with a target 1 winner and runner out at breakeven. Then a short winner, again, with runners out at breakeven, and finally a short loser.
Have a Great Long Weekeend !

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Monday, January 14, 2013

Small Range and Impulse Indicator Alignment

On the following chart, we can see the use of the Impulse Indicator and Small Range Indicator for NinjaTrader showing the first short signal of the week on Crude Oil.

Luckily, both signals of both uncorrelated systems are triggering on same Price Area
The implied risk of both trades are similar and in the range of usd 150, while the possible target is bigger than usd 500 using trailing stop.
First Sell Trade of the Week using Small Range Setup
First Sell Trade of the Week using the Impulse Strategy
As you can guess, nothing better for a strategy, to have another uncorrelated setup aligned on same Price Area
For those who follow these Setups, knowing the fact of confluence increases the probability of success.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Impulse Setup on EURUSD and AAPL

Hello, Welcome !
On this new Article we continue analyzing the Impulse Setup. Now the question is ; Is this useful for Forex or Stocks ? .... YES ! !
On this publication I will share with you examples of application of the Impulse Setup On Forex and also on Stocks ( AAPL ).

The following chart is a 15 Minutes EURUSD with the Impulse Setup Indicator applied.

We can see several shorts happened last week, and today we had the first long ( currently a nice winner )

Estrategia de Impulso en Forex, par EURUSD, 15 Minutos

And now an example on Stocks, for example a 15 minute AAPL chart :

Estrategia de Impulso en AAPL

The number of trades is much lower on stocks than Forex, and the number of signals on Forex is even much lower than Futures. But the system works anywhere.
Please remember that on previous posts I have much more detailed information about this Setup.
The Indicator Store has dedicated Indicators and Strategies for this setup, to visualize, identify, backtest and optimize its settings. 

If you liked this article please share and post any comments.


Friday, January 4, 2013

Impulse Setup on Gold

As a continuation of yesterday's Post where We explained the Impulse Setup, today We had an excellent example of this Setup on Gold ( GC )
In the attached chart we can see how after the Employment Report at 8:30 ET, the Gold Market had some quick moves almost impossible to trade ( take a look at the  TIS_Bar_Time indicator at the bottom of the Chart showing several bars with time duration close to zero ).
After Maket calmed from the Report reaction, the Bar duration returned to an average of 30 seconds and We had 2 signals ; 
A Short, with only target 1 available ( 10 to 15 ticks ). Rest of position out at break even.
A Long, with first and second targets, and also a possible runner with trailing stop
 If you liked this setup or have any questions and suggestions please post and share !

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Trade Setup for Impulsive Markets

The most profitable markets are those with Impulsive Movements.
A Market leaves the Trend mode and switches to Impulse Mode when there are no more pullbacks big enough to get into the trade, and when it finally happens the move is finished leaving just a small winner or even a loser.
On volatile markets, the switch from sideways to Impulse is so fast that we dont even get an entry on the first trending pullback. This is why it is so important to define when the Impulse Mode is starting so we can use an early entry.
The most volatile markets are crude oil, gold, silver, nat gas ( CL, GC, SI, NG ).
Cash Index Markets like S&P ( ES ) are mostly on sideways or trending mode. Some of these trend moves may sometimes change to Impulse Mode, allowing to the trend entries increase their profits.
We have several ways combining classic Indicators, to define when the market is Impulsing.
The most used ways to trigger an Impulse Signal are :
1)      A Fast Moving Average crossing outside a Slow Band
2)      A Fast Band crossing all outside a Slow Band ( similar to previous method but with an extra security margin)
In the following Charts we can see both Methods ; ( The vertical Red Line shows where the Impulse Mode Starts on each example )
comienzo_modo_impulso     comienzo_modo_impulso2
 The Band can be a Bollinger Band, a Keltner Channel or a Fixed Envelope ( like on the examples shown )
We have to take into account that if we use Range Charts, all Bars will have same height, so volatility ( and ATR ) will be constant, turning Keltner Channels into Fixed Envelopes.
Now we have different ways to define the Impulse Mode Signals, now we just need to define the entry.
In a trend system, we use the slow EMA ( like on the PM_EMA setup ), but on Impulsive Moves, the Markets never come back to the EMA.
The entry can be defined again using an envelope ( Bollinger, Keltner, Fixed ) of lower size than the signal envelope ;
An entry for example 1 can be the lower slow band ( green) 
An entry for example 2 can be a 50% of upper fast band ( blue )
As shown, using EMAs and Envelopes to define signals and entries, we can get a big number of different setups. We just need to find the best combination for each Instrument.
Having all these rules automated is a big Help that let us backtest, optimize and even trade any configuration. We at The Indicator Store have a Strategy Pack called PM_Impulse, that contains several individual strategies following different combinations of the explained setups.
If you like this article please leave your comments and share with your firneds

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

OpenGap Indicator for NinjaTrader

There is a lot of info about the Gaps, and mainly about those not yet closed ; the OpenGaps. In the following article I will show the several ways we can use the OpenGap Indicator.

To begin, we must define what is a "Gap" ; it is the difference between prior session Close and current session Open.
This definition limits the number of markets where this definiton is valid to apply ; We need an instrument with  a well defined Day Session time like Standard and Poors ( ES ), where there is a  24 Hours Market, but the main Volume is in the Day Session Trading Time.

If the Gap ( Yesterday's Close - Today's Open ) is greater than a certain value ( usually 2 to 3 points in ES ) then we consider there is an Open Gap.

The Open Gaps are followed by lot of Traders, so its importance as Support and Resistance is huge. If We are not following this Strategy, We should at least have into account the existent Open Gaps, to act according to their location. For example, taking a partial or total profit slightly before the next Open Gap is a good idea to start.

In the following picture, we can see a recent example from December 28, 2012:


Another examples form November 2012
These example pictures are using the Indicator OpenGap for NinjaTrader, that can be obtained on the following link
If you liked this article, please comment or share with your friends.